紀由屋分享坊
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.


payung33
payung33
屋友
Online
Offline

文章數 : 1
紀由幣 : 0
注冊日期 : 2022-07-27

The stock market is practically begging for a recession. Empty The stock market is practically begging for a recession.

周三 7月 27, 2022 10:31 pm
Inflation is at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking interest rates. Economic growth is slowing and, and so is the job market. Cracks are forming in the home-building and home-buying markets as mortgage rates have surged. Consumer sentiment has plunged. No wonder stocks are in bear territory.

Alongside the slow, steady drip of sour economic data, investors have fallen into a foul mood. CNN Business' Fear & Greed index has been stuck in "Fear" territory for months. But the anticipation of pain is often worse than reality, and the stock market is hoping someone will just rip the Band-Aid off, and declare a recession already.

The longer we talk about a recession, the more likely it is that the economy will continue to ache, said Ritholtz Wealth CEO Josh Brown. Recession fears themselves lead to more pullback. Consumer and investor psychology impacts the economy and we can "talk ourselves into a recession," he wrote in a note.

"If enough people believe it's time to rein in their spending -- and then act on that belief -- it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Brown.

Recessions are inevitable, they're a part of every business cycle. Recessions will happen, and no amount of predicting and prognosticating can prevent them.

That's why some Wall Street analysts are hoping, the National Bureau of Economic Research will officially determine we're in a recession and allow markets to break the dread cycle.

"The sooner we get the recession, the better," said Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab.

Although that may seem counter-intuitive, pulling forward the recession's start date would ultimately be a positive for investors, Gordon said. That's because a recession would mean the turning point for stocks is closer rather than further away, and that the bottom is closer than we think.

Then, investors could move onto the next cycle: searching for hope. Economists liken it to finding green shoots after a forest fire.

"While it may seem economically bullish to assume the recession starts sometime in 2023, it's actually market bearish, especially if you are of the belief that the market still has to price in more downside for earnings," said Gordon.

A recession in 2023 could give us another half year of bearish markets, further harming the economy. But an earlier recession determination means an earlier recovery. It means a quicker return of risk appetite and increase in corporate profits. Wall Street's corporate profits have never grown overall when the economy was moving toward recession.

Most importantly, it would mean inflation pressures would decrease more quickly and the Fed would be able to end its tightening policy sooner, minimizing economic damage and increasing investment opportunities.

The problem is the NBER is notoriously slow at announcing when we're in a recession. It didn't announce until June 2020 that the pandemic-induced recession had begun in February — and that was faster than usual.
So, sadly for Wall Street investors looking for some relief, the recession debate will almost certainly carry on for months.

Bank of America analysts, meanwhile, predict a "mild recession" will begin this year in the United States and will abate by 2023.

https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-86958/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-86959/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87006/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87009/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87010/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87012/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87019/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87020/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87021/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87022/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87023/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87024/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87025/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87027/
https://www.hihonor.com/tr/club/topicdetail/topicid-87028/
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1nJIkkT6EmflgPolIySiQm0zwN10mBQlw
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1nRJG4ZG6l_vjoiuAhW4Udw0eSBUrJVQj
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1PGXdx5HXBPKeuFWEn9ERMW3XXvkgJhC8
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1IAPy9FKhDpkXP4u7yJRw8kiJVaW2koLD
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1saoq2XfBEa_tEkidEoV08yCVRZ9Dne6g
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1faZyaV7VvrJJz9_sIvgxoeXq_7ZSfdSo
https://mymediads.com/marketing_articles/140032
https://tophsffootball.shivtr.com/forum_threads/3698134
https://kuula.co/post/N6jqs/collection/7vC4S
https://kagurapayung337.cgsociety.org/px9y/the-stock-market-is-
https://payung33.hashnode.dev/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://www.click4r.com/posts/g/5238762/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://datamodelinginstitute.com/community/profile/kagurapayung337/
https://theprose.com/post/496142/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://sco.lt/5pBajI
https://payung33.cookpad-blog.jp/articles/736798
https://peacepink.ning.com/forum/topics/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://kaalama.org/read-blog/143132
https://lookbook.nu/look/9402634-The-Stock-Market-Is-Practically-Begging-For-A-Rece
https://jobs.blognone.com/company/bebeb-ajengyt/job/stock-market-is-ho9S
https://zenodo.org/communities/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession/
https://www.deviantart.com/gyhuher/journal/The-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-rece-923895238
https://techplanet.today/post/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://ourclass.mn.co/posts/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
http://www.liknti.com/threads/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession.507516/
https://westseattleblog.com/forums-2/users/kagurapayung337/
https://www.rw-forum.com/topic/277463-the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession/
https://kuntal.org/kuntal/blog/view/103078/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://www.techrum.vn/threads/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession.622921/
https://steemit.com/news/@kagurapayung337/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession
https://www.party.biz/blogs/115322/154420/the-stock-market-is-practically-begging-for-a-recession

Recession is never a good thing, but a short and shallow recession now is better than a large and looming threat in the distance.


查看下一個下一個上一篇主題查看上一個
這個論壇的權限:
無法 在這個版面回復文章